Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2012

 

Tuesday, 01 May 2012 19:01

We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Nino event this summer and fall are relatively high. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along with United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

By Philip J. Klotzbach, Research Scientist,

and William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science.

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